Interpreting legislative assembly elections 2022

BJP’s election strategy of mixing ‘faith’ with ‘food’ paid rich dividends. Its hindutva ideology combined with welfare initiatives backed by efficient last mile delivery swelled the BJP tide writes Rasheed Kidwai The outcome of five recently concluded state legislative assembly polls in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa and Manipur will have a major impact on the country’s politics — making the BJP-NDA near invincible, demoralising the Congress and shattering prospects of a united opposition against a resurgent BJP led by prime minister Narendra Modi in 2024. In particular, the BJP’s performance in Uttar Pradesh was spectacular at various levels. Yogi Adityanath became the first chief minister of a national party to complete a full five-year term in UP. Adityanath (49) is now a contender for the post of prime minister in the post-Narendra Modi era. Uttar Pradesh (pop.215 million) sends an outsize 80 members to Parliament’s Lok Sabha. The BJP’s election strategy of mixing ‘faith’ and ‘food’ paid rich dividends. Here, faith refers to BJP’s hindutva ideology which has been central to its earlier avatars such as the Jan Sangh, Hindu Mahasabha etc. Its ideological mentor Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh’s focus on Hindu majoritarian assertion, drive against cow slaughter, integration of J&K with India, building a Ram Temple in Ayodhya, upliftment of ancient temples in Kashi, Mathura combined with welfare initiatives such as free 5 kg rice/wheat, one kg lentil, one litre mustard oil, salt and sugar to EWS (economically weaker sections) households, transfer of Rs.1,100 for poor school-going children backed by efficient last mile delivery systems, helped the BJP and Yogi Adityanath tide over adverse factors such as anti-incumbency, caste divides and farmers unrest. The BJP’s resounding electoral success has a message for the opposition, particularly for the rudderless Congress. In the Lok Sabha, 1951-69, India did not have a recognised opposition to the Congress party or a leader of the opposition. Despite this, the sangh parivar (RSS family) stuck to its basic agenda. Finally electoral gains accrued in 1996 and the Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led BJP-NDA government ruled from 1999-2004. According to one estimate, the RSS-sangh parivar have 137 affiliated outfits which indirectly work to propagate its socio-economic and political agenda. Sonia and Rahul Gandhi need to ponder how many such affiliates the Congress has. Instead of developing a dedicated cadre, the Congress has started relying on liberals and the Left to fill the void without the awareness that the liberal discourse is often very different from the culture of conservative sections of society, including the majority of Congress leaders at lower levels of the party hierarchy. The BJP-NDA’s gains on March 10, 2022 (when the assembly poll results were announced) has ensured that it will be an easy passage for its nominee to be elected President of India in July. This would not have been the case had the Samajwadi Party-RLD combine won UP, and Congress had retained Punjab and wrested Uttarakhand from BJP. Certainly Congress under the Gandhi trio — Sonia, Rahul and Priyanka — is facing a…